Monday, June 29, 2015

The Computerization of Earthquake Forecasts

The global financial system is, in non-crisis times, the chief object which forecast/prediction is applied to. Whereas previously the art of predicting lay with some special individuals that through their “powers” predicted natural disasters and other things, today mathematical and computerized models have replaced prophetic individuals in the science of mainly financial predictions.

Some may feel that if human beings can predict financial actions and processes accurately, they can also predict seismic activity to a great degree of accuracy. The computer becomes seen as able to play God in the realm of mathematical prediction. The computer model of the financial system, in other words, is the “Master symbolic order” which legitimizes man-made knowledge/models about all other things. The “computerization” of knowledge, meaning the use of computers to formulate knowledge, begins with the financial system and later as a result the prediction of earthquakes is itself computerized. It is forecasts of the financial system which instill in people the idea of an “order,” a “regularity,” a “predictability,” and weather/nature forecasts take a backseat, like in our media news channels, and appear inspired be financial predictions rather than being the financial system's forerunner. People will believe in the “math” of earthquake prediction as long as they believe in the math of financial prediction.

But in reality our understanding of earthquakes seem to rely only on a few mathematical symbols/concepts: among them, the “Richter scale,” “epicenter” and “velocity,” which have all entered the Nepali lay-speak, but there seems to be not many more other symbols and concepts related to the earthquake which could feature in a better mathematical model. It seems that the computer models that predict earthquakes must be outdated, whereas the computer models that understand the financial world are very cutting-edge.

However, since the global financial system has been in crisis, the financial model's ability to predict financial trends and processes has been called into question. Consequently, as we can see from Nepal's example, people's faith in the computer's ability to predict seismic activity has also been erased, because the financial crisis is a case of computerized modeling as a whole coming into crisis. There will be “panic-driven” predictions in both finance and seismic activity going forward, as long as the global financial system does not serve now as the representative case of the computer's ability to "intelligently" understand and predict.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

A Nepali Construction Worker's Fantasy With Power Tools In Post-Earthquake Nepal

As damaged houses are being destroyed in Nepal today, serious power tools have been brought into the country to do this job. Nepalis that are dreaming of jobs in the Middle-East are instead employed now, albeit temporarily, with the dismantling process here at home using the new power tools, and this kind of dismantling work has consequences on fantasy production. The Middle-Eastern countries in which Nepali workers work are known for oil wealth and other kinds of revenue, and the fantasy of the Nepali worker in the Middle-East, then, concerns itself with spending oil wealth and consuming more and more, rather than with saving money and working hard. But, with the jackhammer and other power tools used by Nepali workers here in Nepal today, this fantasy will transform from a fantasy of consumption and excess pleasure to a fantasy of production, where the workers will fantasize about working in the Middle-East instead of spending money over there. The patriotic passion with which the Nepali workers work to dismantle buildings in Nepal will also translate into a high degree of commitment towards work once they are abroad. That feeling that they are “representing Nepal” when they are working abroad tomorrow will also be supplemented by their feeling of “doing Nepal's work” in dismantling Nepali houses here today. This fantasy-to-be-more-productive entails that Nepali workers will be more entrepreneurial and “business-savvy” than before, and will try to attempt more lucrative and profitable ventures in the nations where they are employed, rather than being dependent on wage labor without much freedom for upward mobility.

The jackhammer is a smaller version of the Middle-Eastern oil drill, and the feeling of the powerful working jackhammer in a worker's hands will translate to a desire to control with one's hands an entire oil drill or even an oil rig, such is the positive “power trip” of controlling a powerful jackhammer and of destroying an entire house. There is, for the first time today, a definite relationship between Middle-Eastern heavy industry/construction and work within Nepal, putting the focus of the relations between Nepal and the Middle-East on issues related to work conditions rather than leisure and wages, perhaps even putting the issue of dangerous work conditions on the map. An authentic interest in issues related to work will be more prevalent: the Nepali worker, upon migration, will realize that the Middle-Eastern countries are not only a place for spending and luxury, but that these countries have to be recognized instead for the efficiency they show in generating oil and the endurance of their operations and business practices. Further, familiarity with the equipment used in serious construction would be favorable towards the Nepali worker's productivity in the Middle-East, and be looked favorably by the bosses over there, causing more rapid upward mobility in the workplace hierarchy, perhaps even taking a Nepali worker to the very top.

What the migrant Nepali worker must try and avoid, however, is a kind of “identity crisis” related to the difference in responsibilities at work between here and in the Middle-East: the work here in Nepal today is destructive and negative, while constructing buildings or extracting oil in the Middle East is a more positive endeavor, one that creates something rather than destroying. There may be moments when the migrant worker questions his/her authentic position, whether he is supposed to create or destroy. If the migrant worker identifies with the destructive work in Nepal too much, he/she will be thought to be more comfortable with destructive work: thereby employed in the military of a Middle-Eastern country and dropped into war-zones, and then a military relationship between Nepal and the Middle-East would begin, like in the case of the British army and Nepali soldiers, with stricter conditions on who can work over there.