The Computerization of Earthquake Forecasts

The global financial system is, in non-crisis times, the chief object which forecast/prediction is applied to. Whereas previously the art of predicting lay with some special individuals that through their “powers” predicted natural disasters and other things, today mathematical and computerized models have replaced prophetic individuals in the science of mainly financial predictions.

Some may feel that if human beings can predict financial actions and processes accurately, they can also predict seismic activity to a great degree of accuracy. The computer becomes seen as able to play God in the realm of mathematical prediction. The computer model of the financial system, in other words, is the “Master symbolic order” which legitimizes man-made knowledge/models about all other things. The “computerization” of knowledge, meaning the use of computers to formulate knowledge, begins with the financial system and later as a result the prediction of earthquakes is itself computerized. It is forecasts of the financial system which instill in people the idea of an “order,” a “regularity,” a “predictability,” and weather/nature forecasts take a backseat, like in our media news channels, and appear inspired be financial predictions rather than being the financial system's forerunner. People will believe in the “math” of earthquake prediction as long as they believe in the math of financial prediction.

But in reality our understanding of earthquakes seem to rely only on a few mathematical symbols/concepts: among them, the “Richter scale,” “epicenter” and “velocity,” which have all entered the Nepali lay-speak, but there seems to be not many more other symbols and concepts related to the earthquake which could feature in a better mathematical model. It seems that the computer models that predict earthquakes must be outdated, whereas the computer models that understand the financial world are very cutting-edge.

However, since the global financial system has been in crisis, the financial model's ability to predict financial trends and processes has been called into question. Consequently, as we can see from Nepal's example, people's faith in the computer's ability to predict seismic activity has also been erased, because the financial crisis is a case of computerized modeling as a whole coming into crisis. There will be “panic-driven” predictions in both finance and seismic activity going forward, as long as the global financial system does not serve now as the representative case of the computer's ability to "intelligently" understand and predict.